About

The Gigatonne Challenge

This is where you’ll find more detailed information about the Gigatonne Challenge. Please check the list of documents in the sidebar.

The Gigatonne Challenge as a strategy has three phases.

Completing these three phases results in employment for millions of people around the world and gigatonne-scale reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.

Learn more about how you can start a Gigatonne Team.

“The Gigatonne Challenge is precisely the type of disruptive initiative we need today.”

Manish Bapna, President and CEO, Natural Resources Defence Council

Key Documents

Podcast

Towards Real Climate Action (with Zaid Hassan and Sweta Daga)

The Math Behind the Gigatonne Challenge

This section explains the logic and the core math behind The Gigatonne Challenge.

A gigatonne is one billion tonnes. Current scientific estimates are that we need to reduce global emissions between 1 to 1.4 gigatonnes of CO2e per year, with emissions needing to peak almost immediately.

This is how that goal can be achieved, while simultaneously benefiting those most vulnerable.

The core math behind the gigatonne challenge follows a power-law. In simple language this means the more teams we have, the more likely it is we achieve our goals.

Here’s how it works.

Our goal is reducing one billion tonnes of CO2e per year while benefiting the most vulnerable.

“In statistics, a Power Law is a functional relationship between two quantities, where a relative change in one quantity results in a proportional relative change in the other quantity, independent of the initial size of those quantities: one quantity varies as a power of another.”

Source: Wikipedia

  • If we had one team with this target, then the odds of success would be low.

    1 billion tonnes CO2e = 1 team = low odds

  • If we had 1000 teams what would the odds be?

    1 billion tonnes CO2e = 1000 teams = Target per team = 1 MegaTonne CO2e per year = better odds

    The target, while still high, suddenly becomes more manageable. The power-law works this way.

  • If we had 2000 teams, the target per teams drops again.

    1 billion tonnes CO2e = 2000 teams = Target per team = 0.5 MegaTonne CO2e per year.

  • So, the math looks like this

    1 billion tonnes CO2e = n teams = Target per teams = (1 billion / n) CO2e per year

    If n is over 1000 then the odds are good and as n increases, the odds get better and better.

This approach also means that we maximise equity, the more teams we have the more the benefits are decentralised across multiple geographies.

We have run multiple scenarios for the co-investment needed to make gigatonne-scale reductions. This is the only approach where the math adds up. We have set 7 performance levels for Gigatonne Teams.

These performance levels include temporal, abatement and equity targets. Teams graduate to a new level once they meet the standards for a level.

From Level 3 all teams are financed.

Phase one

Start-up (48 months)

We are currently in the middle of the Start-Up Phase and are aiming to complete it by the end of 2022.

Phase Two

Take-Off (48-60 months)

The Take-Off Phase consists of regional “Code Red Sprints” – these are timebound “sprints” where 250 teams start at Level 1 and graduate to Level 6 in 24 months.

We anticipate 3 regional Code Red Sprints to launch during the Take-Off Phase.

Phase Three

End-State (48-60 months)

The End-State Phase involves extending Code Red Sprints to nine regions around the world, with approximately 750 teams participating per region.

The goal is for teams to reach a “Steady-State” where they are reducing emissions steadily across multiple domains, from energy efficiency to renewables to food and transport.

Our estimate for how long each phase will take to complete is a function of how much support we are able to generate.

Become a Supporter

Please contact us for more details on how you can partner and support the Gigatonne Challenge.